Quick check 1 of 2 · Turn a story into a claim
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Level II · Module 1 of 13
From a Research Idea to a Testable Hypothesis
A plausible idea is a starting point. Learn to turn it into a research protocol another analyst could challenge, reproduce, and potentially reject.
What you will be able to do
- Specify a population, target, horizon, and decision rule.
- Separate a mechanism from evidence for it.
- Define what would change your conclusion before inspecting results.
Section 1 of 5 · Read, explore, check
Turn a story into a claim
A market narrative explains why something might happen. A hypothesis states what observable pattern you expect, where, and over which horizon. ‘Investors overreact’ is not yet a test: several distinct predictions could follow from that story.
Specify the population, signal measurement, forecast target, and comparator. For example: among stocks meeting a prespecified liquidity rule, does yesterday’s extreme decline predict a different next-session return from the stated benchmark? This is testable without assuming the answer.
The hypothesis should have a possible disappointing result. If every outcome can be explained as support, the claim cannot discipline a decision. A failed test can reject this operational version without disproving every possible form of the underlying economic story.
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Keep this in mind: Translate intuition into an observable comparison before choosing a model.
Make the idea stick
Two quick checks before you move on.
Choose an answer to see feedback and the reasoning immediately. Getting one wrong is a chance to inspect the distinction, not a reason to stop.
Quick check 2 of 2 · Turn a story into a claim
A negative finding can always be relabeled as confirmation of the original claim. What is missing?
Additional practice · independent of assessment eligibility
Define a falsifiable announcement study
A colleague proposes buying firms with ‘strong earnings news.’ Draft a research ticket and one competing explanation.
Your draft stays in this page's memory. This is self-review, not automatic grading or a project submission.
Show a hint
Specify the surprise measure, availability, feasible entry, horizon, and comparator.