Level I · Module 3
Probability for Financial Markets
Reason about conditional probabilities, base rates, expected value, independence, and Bayesian updates.
This module is locked
Available with Level I enrollment or the complete three-level program.
Explore the module outline below, or start with the free orientation and Module 1.
Read the free orientation and Module 1Module outline
- Conditional probability and independence
- Base rates and Bayes
- Expected value and payoff asymmetry
Intended learning outcome: Explain why a signal with 70% directional accuracy may still lose money.